Preventing artificial intelligence from triggering a world war

LONDON/LOS ANGELES – When President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Washington recently, AI governance was expected to be at the top of the agenda. The United States and China have been racing to develop increasingly powerful AI systems and neither has shown much appetite for slowing down. But not even the winner of the AI race will be exempt from the profound risks the technology poses.

One such risk arises from AI’s improving ability to spot software vulnerabilities and conduct complex cyber operations. Because cyber conflict is marked by a stark asymmetry between offense and defense, the country with the world’s most advanced AI models will still be exposed to cyberattack. This mutual vulnerability creates a strong incentive for reciprocal restraint when it comes to AI-enabled attacks on critical infrastructure, such as financial networks, communications systems and power grids.

There is precedent for such restraint. In 2015, U.S. President Barack Obama agreed with Xi that neither government would conduct or knowingly support cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property for commercial advantage. They also established mechanisms for exchanging information, assisting investigations and addressing malicious cyber activity. Cybersecurity firms subsequently recorded a steep decline in attacks attributable to China-based groups, though analysts noted that the decline began before the agreement and may have reflected changes within China’s military and cyber apparatus.