Russia’s Crypto Market Could Hit $46B in Year One as New Trading Rules Unlock Massive Demand

Within the regulated cryptocurrency market, trading volume in Russia could reach 4 trillion rubles ($46.4 billion) at the end of the first year of circulation, according to a report by SberCIB Investment Research. According to TASS, trading volume was expected to range from 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles, with the agency estimating the upper bound.

Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said that this estimate assumes that only a small portion of Russia’s existing cryptocurrency market shifts to the regulated legal segment. According to the Finance Ministry, cryptocurrency turnover in Russia totaled 50 billion rubles ($605 million) per day, or 18 trillion rubles ($218 billion) per year. Around 20% of that activity would be expected to move onto exchanges, SberCIB said.

The bank expected that when the regulated market for organized trading develops, the volume of cryptotrading would rise to between 4.75 and 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028, and will reach 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029 ($87 billion). However, these numbers are still forecasts, so these are not guaranteed trading volumes or targets.

Popov stated that a large proportion of transactions are likely to happen through crypto exchange services outside of organized trading. Adoption of the new rules is expected to be gradual as the new cryptocurrency regime for Russia is scheduled to take effect on 1 September 2026. Existing market participants must apply for licenses by 1 July 2027.