The ‘Economic Singularity’ Could Fuel Crypto’s Next Supercycle, Says Raoul Pal

Raoul Pal said liquidity should extend past 2027 on the capex supercycle and bond issuance.

• Raoul Pal said on Friday crypto’s recent drawdown was a "mid-cycle fall," not the end of a full cycle.
• He said a leverage flush still has to come before the market can really move higher.
• He said the "economic singularity" arrives around 2030, when AI agents become a productive population.

Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal said on Friday that crypto's drawdown was a "mid-cycle fall and not a full cycle," and that the market's biggest move would come later this decade, when AI agents push the economy into an "economic singularity" around 2030.

In an interview on the Crypto Insider podcast, Pal explained that the current setup resembled 2019 and 2020, when Bitcoin traded flat for months before the rally that took it to record highs in 2021, trading above $65,000 in November of the year. 

He said the four-year cycle fooled people. Traders waited for one last dip that did not come, and the buying since has come from those who missed it. He added one caution, however. A quick leverage flush still has to happen before the market can really get going, according to Pal.

Why Bitcoin Lagged?

Liquidity is driving both, not the headlines or the earnings, according to macro investor Raoul Pal. “Bitcoin is 87% correlated with global liquidity; the Nasdaq is 97% correlated.” That gap explains part of the split this year. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) has gained 16.46% year-to-date. Bitcoin fell almost 4% over the same period. Liquidity makes Bitcoin swing harder, said Pal, because it’s young, volatile and emotional. “It is running cold," he said.