Bernstein Predicts $10 Trillion Prediction Market by 2035—10X Its Original Forecast

In brief

• Bernstein projects prediction-market volume hitting $10 trillion annually by 2035, up from an estimated $410 billion in 2026, replacing the bank's own $1 trillion by 2030 forecast from April.
• Financial-asset contracts (crypto, stocks, commodities) are set to overtake sports as the industry's biggest category, rising from 12% of volume in 2025 to 49% by 2035 as sports falls from 61% to 38%.
• Bernstein says full U.S. regulatory clarity for sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027 or 2028, even as Kalshi and Polymarket already process hundreds of billions in volume.

Wall Street's forecast for prediction markets just got ten times bigger. Bernstein now projects the industry will handle $10 trillion a year in trading volume by 2035, roughly 24 times the $410 billion it expects the market to process this year and 10 times its original forecast for 2030.

Bernstein's analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, said in a note to clients on Tuesday that they expect volumes to compound at roughly 70% a year through 2035. Industry-wide trading already grew from about $50 billion in 2025 to roughly $300 billion in the first eight months of 2026.

Sports made up 61% of trading volume in 2025, and Bernstein expects that to fall to 38% by 2035. Contracts tied to crypto, stocks, and commodities, grouped together as "financial assets," are set to grow from 12% to 49% of the market, making them the largest category for the first time.