Bitcoin Exchange Balances Return to Pre-Hack Levels, U.S. ETFs See Largest Inflows in Eight Months

Bitcoin held above $79,000 (approximately ¥12 million) throughout the Labor Day holiday period. Even as U.S. employment data far surpassed market expectations and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike rose from 50% to 60%, downside remained limited. In derivatives markets, deleveraging progressed while exchange balances declined to levels seen before the Coldcard hacking incident, and spot ETFs attracted inflows on a scale not seen in eight months.

Deleveraging Underway in Derivatives Markets

Bitcoin open interest contracted 7.5%, from $57.7 billion (approximately ¥8.9 trillion) on September 3 to $53.44 billion (approximately ¥8.2 trillion) on September 7. With spot prices falling only 2% during this period, the decline suggests traders are actively unwinding excessive leverage ahead of Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, rather than a deterioration in underlying demand.

Funding rates moved in the same direction. They fell from approximately 0.0035% on September 3 to 0.0008% by September 6, meaning the cost that longs pay to shorts in perpetual futures markets has shrunk. This indicates that overheating in bullish positioning has cooled.

The simultaneous decline in open interest and funding rates confirms that speculative traders were closing positions during the holiday period ahead of the CPI release. With a smaller leverage base, the scale of cascading forced liquidations could remain limited even if CPI comes in hotter than expected. Conversely, if the inflation indicator softens, conditions may be aligning for a spot-driven rally that bypasses an overheated derivatives market.