Bitcoin Falls as Analyst Says the Fed 'Really Should' Raise Rates This Month

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen argued Friday that the Fed “really should” raise rates at its Sept. 16 decision after a blowout jobs report pushed rate hike odds back to 60%.

What Cowen Said About the Jobs Report

Cowen argued on YouTube that the August jobs print essentially reversed what Fed Governor Waller said Thursday, after Waller’s comments had briefly made a hold seem more likely. 

With only two weeks left before the Sept. 16 decision, Cowen noted that a 60/40 split is unusually uncertain, since market expectations typically settle at 80% to 90% certainty within one to two weeks of a Fed decision.

His case for a hike rests on four factors hitting at once:

• GDP tracking at 4.7% for Q3 according to the Atlanta Fed
• Inflation still running at 3.3% to 3.4% year-over-year
• Labor market showing resilience rather than weakness
• Oil near $90 a barrel adding fresh inflationary pressure

In that environment, Cowen said the Fed really should raise rates, and if it does not, the bond market will likely read it as a mistake and push long-end yields even higher.

Why the Inflation Report Next Week Is the Real Swing Factor

Cowen argued that the September inflation report, due before the Fed meeting, is the single data point that will settle the debate.