Bitcoin is sending two notable signals to the market this week: on-chain data suggests the cryptocurrency may be forming a macro bottom, while its price behavior is increasingly echoing gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.
That’s according to two reports from blockchain data firm CryptoQuant, whose analysts pointed to the early stages of a bottoming process for the biggest and oldest cryptocurrency.
The price of the largest cryptocurrency recently stood at $63,362, mostly unmoved over a 24-hour period. Over the past week, Bitcoin is down nearly 2%. Since it notched a record of $126,080 in October, it has shed nearly 50% of its value.
“At each major cycle bottom, long-term holders were sitting on deeper unrealized losses than the broader market,meaning the cohort normally associated with the strongest conviction and lowest sensitivity to volatility is carrying greater unrealized stress than the market as a whole,” wrote analyst MorenoDV.
“The current structure fits that pattern,” he added.
The signal comes from adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data for long-term holders (LTH) — investors typically seen as the most resilient cohort in the market.
Currently, LTH aNUPL has crossed into negative territory and sits below the broader market average, meaning even long-term holders are now sitting on losses greater than the market as a whole. Historically, this exact pattern — long-term holders hurting more than average — has shown up at every major cycle bottom.
The setup lines up with Bitcoin trading roughly 50% below its cycle high, reinforcing the view that this is more than an ordinary correction.
