Bitcoin (BTC) may be approaching a major breakout after a key volatility indicator reached its lowest level in nearly three years, a setup that previously preceded one of the cryptocurrency’s strongest rallies on record.
The latest Bitcoin technical analysis shows that the Bollinger Band Width (BBWidth) indicator has compressed to its narrowest level since October 2023.
The setup is notable because the last time BBWidth reached similarly low levels, Bitcoin entered a powerful expansion phase, rallying more than 330% between October 2023 and October 2025.
Over recent months, the Bollinger Bands have tightened significantly around Bitcoin’s price, pushing BBWidth, which measures the distance between the upper and lower bands, to its lowest level since late 2023.
Historically, such periods of compressed volatility often precede major price moves, although they do not indicate direction.
The analysis identified two major BBWidth compression periods. The first occurred in October 2023 and was followed by a multi-year rally. The second is unfolding now, with Bitcoin trading in the $60,000 to $70,000 range.
Notably, a Bollinger Band squeeze often signals that a period of low volatility is ending. The current squeeze is among the tightest in Bitcoin’s recent history and closely resembles the setup seen in October 2023.
With volatility at an extreme low, focus is on a breakout that could trigger Bitcoin’s next major move.
Bitcoin potential crash to $41,000
Meanwhile, a separate analysis by TradingShot, shared in a TradingView post on August 12, indicated that Bitcoin remains at a critical technical juncture despite the bullish volatility signal.
