Bitcoin may be leaving its 4-year cycle behind for a 6-to-8-year Wall Street rhythm

Bitcoin may be slipping beyond its four-year cycle as institutional capital and macro liquidity gain influence over price.

On Sept. 3, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said that Bitcoin could be moving toward a 6-to-8-year rhythm tied more closely to traditional finance’s short-term debt cycle than to its halving schedule.

According to him, this shift does not make halvings irrelevant. Instead, it means their influence is shrinking relative to the scale of capital now moving through exchange-traded products, corporate treasuries and other institutional channels.

Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC, leaving annual new issuance at roughly 164,250 BTC, or about 0.82% of current circulating supply. The next halving, expected in 2028, would cut that pace again to about 82,125 BTC a year, equivalent to roughly 0.41% of today’s supply base.

That makes each new supply shock smaller just as Wall Street’s footprint grows larger.

Institutional capital is starting to rival Bitcoin’s internal clock

The balance has already changed materially, with institutional holdings now dwarfing the amount of new Bitcoin miners add to circulation each year.

Data from Bitcoin Treasuries shows 100 public companies now hold more than 1.2 million BTC, while Bitcoin exchange-traded products around the world control more than 1.5 million coins.