Bitcoin’s $57K bottom – Is the crypto market calling it too early?

Is the market too optimistic when it says Bitcoin [BTC] may have bottomed?

Technically speaking, BTC is set to close September with its highest wick at a level representing an eight-month high of $87k, rebounding from the July low of $57k. With an ROI of 40%+ in the Q3 cycle so far, the market is growing bullish. Some traders are even calling for a $100k reclaim by the end of October despite the macro volatility around the FOMC.

However, the latest Glassnode report paints a different picture. Based on Bitcoin’s historical bear cycles, BTC is still only some 30% below its cycle high.

This is comparatively a very shallow drawdown for Bitcoin, given that in the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bear cycles, BTC bottomed after drawdowns of over 80%. In essence, current correction is nowhere near the depth seen during previous major cycle bottoms.

Notably, if history is used as a guide, Bitcoin’s bottom could still be some time away. As the chart above highlights, another 90 days could be needed before BTC reaches a potential cycle low. While this is not a confirmed forecast, it challenges the idea that a $57k low was the final bottom.

This is important because the market is already pricing in a volatile Q4. U.S. markets were hit by fresh macro FUD, with over $1 trillion wiped out across major asset classes in the past 24 hours as U.S.-Iran tensions reignited. Treasury yields have moved above 5%, while oil prices have pushed toward $90/barrel.