Bitcoin’s biggest rival for investor attention may no longer be Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) or any other cryptocurrency.
Increasingly, it’s the AI trade.
Kalshi traders give Bitcoin a 58% chance of falling below $55,000 before year-end and just an 11% chance of reclaiming $100,000 before 2027, suggesting traders remain skeptical of a major Bitcoin rebound.
AI Has Become the New Speculative Trade
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs bled more than $3.1 billion through June 5, while the four largest semiconductor ETFs took in over $21 billion, according to Reuters.
The divergence suggests investors haven’t lost their appetite for risk. They’re simply finding more compelling places to take it.
That is the problem K33 identified for Bitcoin. The firm argued that even with the cryptocurrency looking undervalued, the opportunity cost of holding it had become difficult to ignore while AI-related assets were surging. Bernstein similarly pointed to retail investors shifting money toward AI.
Bank of America’s July fund manager survey found 82% calling long semiconductors the market’s most crowded trade, while 45% simultaneously named an AI bubble as the biggest tail risk, according to Reuters.
Yet prediction-market traders aren’t expecting an imminent reckoning: Polymarket gives a 16% chance of the AI bubble bursting this year.
Crypto Traders Are Following the Money
The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that individual traders and hedge funds have dumped Bitcoin and other tokens to buy AI stocks. One trader reportedly sold a six-figure Bitcoin stake to go all-in on AI, while another rotated from Bitcoin and altcoins into chipmakers.
