Bitcoin's Rally Ran on Thin Volume: Is a Cascade to $81,000 Next?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) pushed through the $85,000 resistance wall but failed to hold the breakout, with Glassnode data flagging mounting risks that could threaten the sustainability of BTC’s rally.

Why Couldn’t Bitcoin Hold The Breakout?

Glassnode noted several concerning factors for Bitcoin in its report published Wednesday:

• Thin trading volume: Spot exchanges and U.S. ETFs are averaging $6.8 billion daily, below roughly 90% of trading days since January 2024.
• Weak breakout: Sunday’s close above $85,000 came on roughly half the volume of a typical Sunday.
• Fresh money lags: ETFs, stablecoins and corporate treasuries added $4.9 billion over 30 days versus a $12.8 billion increase in Bitcoin’s Realized Cap.
• Existing investors drive gains: Fresh capital accounted for less than 40% of the Realized Cap increase.
• Profit-taking rises: On Oct. 4, 86% of Bitcoin sent to exchanges by short-term holders was moved at a profit, the highest share in a year.

Options Turn Bullish, But $81K Is Key Support

Bitcoin options traders are leaning bullish, with put/call ratios below one and call premiums exceeding puts by roughly $17 million per day on a 30-day average.

However, liquidation positioning points to near-term downside risk.