Bitcoin surges 40% from July low, reigniting $100,000 speculation

Bitcoin has staged one of its most dramatic recoveries of the year, rallying roughly 40% from its July 1 intraday low of approximately $57,748 to trade in the $79,000 to $81,000 range in early September. The move has predictably resurrected the question that refuses to die: can BTC reclaim $100,000?

The answer, at least according to prediction markets, is "probably not this year." Platforms like Kalshi and ForecastEx currently price the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100K by the end of 2026 at around 28%.

Bitcoin ground higher through July and August before accelerating into the current range, with some intraday prints pushing above $82,000. August alone delivered a roughly 25% gain, making it Bitcoin's strongest August since 2017.

That August performance also carried a technical milestone. Bitcoin reclaimed levels above its 50-month moving average for the first time since the prior crypto winter.

For context, Bitcoin's 2026 all-time high sits at approximately $126,198. So even after a scorching two-month rally, the price remains more than 35% below its peak. Year-to-date performance through early September is still negative, a reminder that this rally is more about digging out of a hole than breaking new ground.