Bitcoin traders are positioning for a volatile but range-bound August, with prediction market Polymarket assigning a strong chance of a move to $65,000 but little expectation of a fresh record high.
The market gives Bitcoin around a 59% probability of touching $65,000 during August, while the odds fall to 25% for $67,500, 10% for $70,000 and just 2% for $75,000.
On the downside, traders see a 91% chance of Bitcoin falling to $62,500 and a 44% probability of a move to $60,000, while the odds of a drop to $50,000 stand at only 2%.
Bitcoin was trading around $63,050 on 14 August, down roughly 1.3% on the day and around 50% below its October 2025 record high near $126,000.
