BTC ETF Demand, Not History, Will Test Bitcoin’s Rally

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading 10.9% higher in September at $85,929 as of Sept. 23, adding to gains of 4.8% in July and 25.2% in August. If that September figure holds through month-end, it would mark Bitcoin’s first July-to-September winning streak since 2012 – a sequence that has occurred exactly once before in the asset’s trading history, and one that historical trend-confirmation signals alone cannot be relied on to extend into October.

The comparison is notable precisely because of its rarity. Bitcoin has traded since at least late 2010, and in that entire span, three consecutive positive months from July through September has shown up only once – in 2012, when BTC rose 41.0% in July, 6.4% in August and 24.4% in September, per CoinDesk’s data. That single data point sits at the center of the current discussion, and it comes from a market that looked almost nothing like today’s, a gap that shows up clearly when comparing 2012’s thin order books to current spot Bitcoin ETF flow data.

What Does the 2012 Sequence Actually Show?

The 2012 streak did not continue uninterrupted. October that year broke the pattern outright, with Bitcoin falling 9.7% for the month and bottoming at $10.17 on Oct. 26. From that low, Bitcoin then launched a 165-day advance that carried it to $230 by April 2013 – a gain of more than 2,000% from the monthly low.