'Buyers Are Absent'—Glassnode Warning Has Bitcoin Braced For $58,500

"Sellers are tiring but buyers are absent," on-chain analytics firm Glassnode posted on X on Wednesday. "The market is coiled tightly between converging cost-basis levels on the quietest tape since 2019." Bitcoin traded near $64,000 on Tuesday, pinned between the firm's $63,000 median realized price and the $68,700 short-term holder cost basis.

"According to the Seller Exhaustion Constant (30d), the historical bottoming signature has not confirmed yet," Glassnode wrote in an earlier post on Aug. 11. "We continue to monitor for selling to stall further." The weekly report puts the constant at its weakest since 2013, open interest above a full day of volume, and warns losing $58,500 opens a path toward $52,800.

"Glassnode's Seller Exhaustion data is approaching levels seen near previous bear market bottoms," analyst account CryptoBusy posted on Wednesday. "But past cycles went even lower, suggesting $BTC may still need more selling pressure to fully reset."

Why Seller Exhaustion Matters For Bitcoin Price Predictions

Michael Terpin, the Transform Group founder CNBC once dubbed "the godfather of crypto," has argued since April that this is the signal that ends a bitcoin bear market, part of his call for an October bottom near $57,000. "When there's a lower low that doesn't go any lower, that's it," Terpin said on the On The Margin podcast. "And usually that's identified by complete exhaustion of selling."