What Drove the Downgrade
Citi cited four primary concerns: declining user activity, significant restructuring, cyclical revenue headwinds, and the slowing pace of U.S. crypto legislation. Monthly app downloads fell to 41,000 in February, down from more than 100,000 in each of the preceding nine months.
The exchange IPO'd near Bitcoin's (BTC) October 2025 peak; since then, Bitcoin has retreated approximately 40% from its all-time high, depressing industry trading volumes and exchange revenue.
In February, Gemini announced a 25% headcount reduction and the wind-down of operations across the U.K., European Union, and Australia - giving affected users until April 6 to withdraw funds. The company's COO, CFO, and Chief Legal Officer have since departed.
Citi Also Cut Bitcoin and Ethereum Targets
The GEMI downgrade followed Citi's earlier revision of its 12-month cryptocurrency price targets.
The bank lowered its Bitcoin forecast 22% from $143,000 to $112,000 and its Ethereum (ETH) target 26% from $4,304 to $3,175. Citi explicitly cited "stalled" momentum on the CLARITY Act - the pending U.S. crypto market structure legislation - as a key factor.
The bill requires at least seven Senate Democratic votes to advance, and midterm elections in November could further complicate that calculus.
Bitcoin was trading near $71,250 and Ethereum near $2,175 at time of writing, both down Wednesday amid inflation data and geopolitical uncertainty.
Kostiantyn Tsentsura is a Content Writer at Yellow.com with over 8 years of experience in crypto, dedicating the last 4 years to writing about the industry. Based in Kyiv, he’s passionate about football, fishing, and kayaking. When he’s not tracking market trends or exploring crypto news, you’ll find him on the water—because even in crypto, sometimes it’s best to just go with the flow.
