CryptoQuant’s 3 charts keeping Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ thesis valid

Bitcoin (BTC) can still preserve its traditionally strong October performance, as onchain data points to a local BTC price bottom forming.

Key points:

• Onchain data suggested that Bitcoin could still end October strong, following historical patterns. 
• Bitcoin exchange reserves remained 1.7% lower than in mid-September, while whales avoided selling.
• Apparent demand neared a transition to positive readings for the second time in 2026.

BTC price analysis flags “potential bottom” signals

New analysis published on crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant Monday show onchain conditions in a state of “cautious optimism.” 

Bitcoin continues to weather mixed macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, which include 24-year highs in US bond yields, rising oil prices and cooling capital inflows to exchange-traded products. These conditions have dampened optimism over Bitcoin delivering a strong performance in October.

“Now, signs of a potential bottom are emerging,” CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan wrote.

Since the start of October, conditions have changed to increasingly benefit crypto and risk assets. XWIN points to cooling expectations of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve into 2027, boosting the odds of inflows improving. At the same time, markets expect more clarity over the US domestic political situation after the approaching Midterm Elections.