How a five-second trick let traders drain millions from Polymarket

Prediction market concerns

Before the July-dated study, Variance Lover, a pseudonymous onchain analyst, raised similar concerns, including in one extensive and detailed post dated May 21.

“By now, most people are aware that market manipulation has become a major problem on Polymarket’s 5-minute crypto markets. The mechanism is simple: accumulate a large position on Polymarket, then move the price on Binance during the settlement window to force the market to resolve in your favor.”

An Axis Robotics contributor who goes by 郡主Christine on X, on May 11 noted that manipulation in Polymarket’s five-minute bitcoin market was becoming more severe, citing “precise reversals in the last few seconds.”