Mehmet Sanliol (Evercore): Why quantum valuations hinge on 2030 revenue multiples and consolidation

Yuval Boger interviews Mehmet Sanliol, managing director at Evercore covering quantum technologies and semiconductors. They discuss how investors value public quantum companies, when private companies should consider IPOs or SPACs, and why consolidation may shape the next phase of the industry. Mehmet also shares his perspective on technical and market signals that could affect valuations, the outlook for quantum software, and the recent developments in quantum that caught his attention most.

Transcript

Yuval: Hello, Mehmet, and thank you for joining me today.

Mehmet: How are you, Yuval? My pleasure.

Yuval: So, who are you and what do you do?

Mehmet: So, my name is Mehmet Sanliol. I am the managing director at an investment bank called Evercore, and I focus on quantum technologies and semiconductors.

Yuval: So, why don’t I start from the end? So if you’re speaking with the CEO of a private quantum computer company, one that has delivered the product, has investors, has some good technical progress, what would you advise them to do about the public markets?

Mehmet: So the way that, look, you’ve seen a number of companies, I think we’re now up to kind of seven and having entered the public markets. Thankfully, all seem to be trading well enough so far. And the older companies are kind of well in excess of the $10 stock price and the few others that have joined are hovering around that level. I really think about it as a de-risking strategy because access in the public markets does provide you with the ability to tap liquidity in a manner that’s not necessarily always going to be available on the private side. You do open yourself up to public scrutiny and at some point you see some of the companies that had been traded for a few years now from kind of ’21 onwards go through some tough times and you really need to kind of weigh those two things against each other. To my mind if you are already fully funded or you’re going to hit the milestones you can be and you can hit the requisite milestones to continue to be kind of fully funded privately, that feels to me like the right path for now.