Polymarket Odds Today: Fed October Decision, Bitcoin $90,000, World Series

Market Of The Day: Fed Decision In October

The market has $32.1 million traded and three outcomes: no change at 84% (-526), a 25-basis-point increase at 17% (+488) and a cut at 1%. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, its first hike since July 2023, in a 12-0 vote. The next decision is due on Oct. 28 at 2 p.m. ET.

The catalyst is Wednesday. The September consumer price index is released at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the consensus is 3.6% annual inflation, up from 3.4% in August, when energy prices were 16.3% higher than a year earlier. A smaller Polymarket market on the print ($155K traded) leans a touch hotter: 3.7% is at 44% and 3.6% at 43%.

The October hike was the favorite two weeks ago. CME FedWatch had it at 70.9% on Sept. 29 and at 17% by Oct. 2, after the September jobs report. Traders have moved the second hike to December, which Polymarket prices at 75%. After the CPI, Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak in Bangkok on Thursday, and the Fed's pre-meeting blackout starts on Saturday.

The pick: No change at 84% (-526). A committee that wants to hike in two weeks has four days left to say so, and so far it has not. A 3.6% print changes nothing. It would take 3.8% or higher, plus a clear signal from Warsh on Thursday, to put October back in play, and the inflation market gives 3.8% or more about a 9% chance. A fair price for the hold is closer to 90%. If the number comes in hot and the hold drops below 80%, that is the better entry.