Russia’s Regulated Crypto Trading Could Reach $46 Billion in First Year, Sberbank Says

Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency market could record roughly 4 trillion rubles ($46.43 billion) in trading volume during its first year, with the figure potentially climbing to about 7.5 trillion rubles ($87.06 billion) by 2029, according to Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov in an interview with TASS. The estimates, prepared by the bank’s SberCIB Investment Research analysts, arrive days before Russia’s new rules for legal crypto trading take effect on September 1, offering one of the first concrete attempts to size the incoming market.

The SberCIB Projection

Popov cited Finance Ministry data showing daily cryptocurrency transactions in Russia running at about 50 billion rubles, or roughly 18 trillion rubles a year. SberCIB analysts estimate that in the first year after legalization, around 20% of that volume — between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles — will migrate to regulated exchanges. The share is projected to reach 4.75–5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 and 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029 as more investors move onto official venues.

Why the Forecast Is Conservative

The outlook deliberately understates the market’s eventual scale. Popov said a significant share of crypto activity is expected to keep flowing through cryptocurrency exchange services that bypass licensed trading venues, limiting how much volume the regulated market captures at first. The rules take effect on September 1, but professional market participants have until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses, meaning the market will not reach full maturity within the first year. Those conditions keep near-term projections well below Russia’s total crypto turnover.