Strong jobs just triggered a hawkish UBS reversal that could pressure Bitcoin through December

UBS's new forecast of two Federal Reserve rate hikes this year extends Bitcoin's potential macro headwind through December. The issue reaches beyond September's decision: investors may have to weigh the cost of holding a non-yielding asset against interest-bearing alternatives through the end of 2026.

Reuters reported Sept. 7 that UBS Global Wealth Management now expects increases of 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, in both September and December. It had previously expected no policy change this year. UBS cited strong August labor data, hawkish Fed communication and inflation risks from supply bottlenecks.

Markets are already moving toward that view. Futures price in a roughly 58% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Sept. 15–16 meeting, up from 52% before the jobs report.

For Bitcoin, the risk is that higher rate expectations keep Treasury yields supported, preserve the appeal of dollar assets and make investors less willing to take risk.

Strong jobs give inflation more weight

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 162,000 jobs in August and unemployment held at 4.1%. Hiring exceeded the average monthly gain of 31,000 over the preceding 12 months.