UK warns AI ransomware attack on infrastructure ‘highly likely’ by 2028

AI-powered malware is highly likely to be used in a ransomware attack targeting UK critical national infrastructure by 2028, the country’s National Cyber Security Centre has warned. 

The assessment, published in the NCSC’s Annual Review 2026, says artificial intelligence will increase the scale and efficiency of ransomware operations, social engineering and vulnerability exploitation.

“It is also highly likely that between now and 2028, AI-powered malware will have been used in a ransomware attack on UK CNI,” the report states.

The warning forms part of a broader assessment linking cyber threats to the UK’s economic and national security. The NCSC also warned China, Russia and other nation-states will use “AI cyber” to achieve their geopolitical goals, increasing the scale and speed of cyber threats facing the UK. 

Beyond ransomware, the NCSC highlighted the growing threat of state-backed cyber espionage targeting politicians, government officials and other high-risk individuals. 

During the year, the NCSC observed persistent spear‑phishing activity against high‑risk individuals and increasing efforts to compromise messaging applications. 

In March, Dutch intelligence agencies warned that Russian state hackers were targeting officials, military personnel and civil servants worldwide. Attackers impersonated Signal support to hijack accounts. 

“Technology has always influenced cyber security. What is different today is the pace. The ability of state actors to harness new technologies will increasingly determine their effectiveness,” said the NCSC. 

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