Why Galaxy Research believes THIS level could end Bitcoin’s bear market

Bitcoin’s weekly gains hit 25%, and it nearly cleared the $80K mark after $4B in short liquidations and a macro-driven regime shift. The rally reclaimed the key 200-day Moving Average (currently at $69K), and the short-term holder (STH) realized cost basis of $68K. 

From a price technical perspective, reclaiming these key levels meant the short and midterm structure for BTC has flipped bullish. But the question remains: Does it mean the bear market is behind us? 

Bitcoin rally: A dead-cat bounce or start of a bull run?

For his part, Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC (over-the-counter) trading at market maker Wintermute, acknowledged that this week can’t be faded. 

However, he added that there was no “full participation” to signal a true trend reversal and regime shift as claimed by others. 

But zoom out and positioning doesn’t yet show full participation: OI well below YTD highs, let alone ’25/4, basis still sub-5%, skew only just flipped positive, wings still cheap. Hard to argue positioning is ‘stretched’ here in a new regime.

Basis yield is the spread hedge funds lock in if they buy a U.S Spot BTC ETF and sell an equivalent BTC futures contract over CME. During the bull run in 2024, the yield averaged 10%. It collapsed after the October crash and has been flat around 5%.