Yields are spiking toward 5.2%, but history shows Bitcoin might completely ignore Wall Street's $125 billion stress test

The Treasury auctions will total $125 billion from Aug. 11 through Aug. 13, while two inflation reports land hours before the corresponding 10-year and 30-year sales. The sequence will show whether softer bond demand and any resulting rise in yields coincide with pressure on Bitcoin.

The Treasury refunding plan starts with $58 billion of 3-year notes at 1 p.m. EDT on Aug. 11. It continues with $42 billion of 10-year notes at the same time on Aug. 12 and $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Aug. 13. All three settle Aug. 17.

The gross total is not a $125 billion liquidity drain. About $96.3 billion will refinance privately held debt maturing Aug. 15, leaving approximately $28.7 billion of new cash to raise from investors.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar places July CPI at 8:30 a.m. EDT on Aug. 12, four and a half hours before the 10-year auction. July PPI arrives at 8:30 a.m. the following day, the same interval before the 30-year sale. Together, the releases and Treasury auctions create a tightly timed test of bond demand and Bitcoin’s response.

At the latest official business-day cutoff on Aug. 7, the Treasury's par-yield curve showed 3-year, 10-year and 30-year yields at 4.25%, 4.65% and 5.19%, respectively. A CryptoSlate snapshot retrieved Aug. 9 at 11:25:23 UTC showed Bitcoin at $64,928.71; the live price is timestamp-sensitive.