10x Research Forecast Bitcoin Could Fall to $46,000, but What Really Happened?

A prominent analyst called for Bitcoin to crater to $46,000 and bounce back from the ruins, but the market had other plans entirely. Understanding exactly where that bear case broke down reveals something crucial about who is now quietly controlling…

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Markus Thielen of 10x Research made two forecasts about a potential Bitcoin bottom during the summer of 2026, but Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) never dipped to those levels. On June 24, he suggested that Bitcoin could drop to $55,000 between late August and October. Just ten days later, on July 4, he revised his forecast, calling for a fall to between $46,000 and $47,000 before anticipating a 30% bounce back to $60,000 to $65,000 by year-end.

However, Bitcoin hit its 2026 low at $57,717 on June 30, just six days after the first forecast and four days before the second. Since then, it has surged nearly 49%, trading around $86,000 as of October 7—significantly above the $55,000 target and 85% higher than the middle of the lower range Thielen proposed.

The current rally does have its limitations. Bitcoin has risen about 8% in the past month but is still down roughly 30% from the previous year and trades about 32% below its record high of $126,080 from October 2025. So, where did Thielen’s bear case go wrong?