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CryptoResearch

10x Research's Thielen: $1M Bitcoin by 2030 Is Impossible

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, says the popular call for $1 million bitcoin by 2030 does not survive basic arithmetic.

Bitbo

Publisher

Aug 16, 2026 at 4:15 AM UTC · 1 分で読める

10x Research's Thielen: $1M Bitcoin by 2030 Is Impossible
Image via Bitbo

Entities

bitcoin

Market Impact

BTC+0.27%$77,190

Last Updated

7日前

翻訳中…

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, says the popular call for $1 million bitcoin by 2030 does not survive basic arithmetic.

The math behind the call

Speaking to Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets, Thielen pointed to the roughly $1 trillion of inflows it took over 15 years to build bitcoin’s current market cap.

He said:

“It’s mathematically impossible. We have seen $1 trillion US dollars of inflow to bring the market cap really to $1 trillion. To $1 million [per] Bitcoin. It’s 15x, I think, from here.”

By his estimate, another $15 trillion would need to rotate into bitcoin over four years, roughly a quarter of the entire US stock market.

At the time of publication bitcoin traded near $63,868 with a market cap around $1.28 trillion, leaving it well below the $126,000 all-time high.

Retail psychology and unit bias

Thielen also argued that higher prices weaken retail appetite because buyers want a whole coin rather than a fraction.

He said:

“People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin. You don’t want to buy a fraction of a painting.”

Bitcoin · 30-day price▲ 20.0%

Bitcoin moved from $64,312.9 to $77,168.6 over the last 30-day period, a gain of 20.0 percent.

Source: Kraken · NewsLayer Markets · Updated 数秒前

He added that “satoshis doesn’t really sound as interesting as Bitcoin.”

Warning on headline price targets

Market Context

Bitcoin

BTC

$77,169

+0.24% (24H)

Market Cap

$1.55T

24H Volume

$21.2B

24H High

$77,787

View Bitcoin Market Page

Article Intelligence

Key Entities

bitcoin

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