The probability that the Federal target rate could be bumped up by 25 bps to 375-400 bps was increasing by the day. The FedWatch tool showed a probability of a rate hike at 87.3%.
13.6K BTC flush resets leverage – But Bitcoin’s rally to $82k has THIS hurdle
The probability that the Federal target rate could be bumped up by 25 bps to 375-400 bps was increasing by the day. The FedWatch tool showed a probability of a rate hike at 87.3%.
AMBCrypto
Publisher
Sep 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC · 2 分で読める

Key Signal
87.3% Fed hike probability
Entities
bitcoin
Market Impact
BTC-0.69%$76,779
Last Updated
11時間前
This meant that the chances of a bearish Bitcoin [BTC] price reaction are also higher. In a CryptoQuant analysis, XWIN Japan pointed out that BTC was between persistent, long-term buyers and short-term caution.
The short-term trends could flip bearishly for Bitcoin once again, especially if the caution is given reason to blossom into panic.
Bitcoin retraces into key demand zone at $76k
Friday’s U.S. CPI report introduced high short-term volatility and $685.5 million in liquidations across the crypto market for the day. The past four trading days have seen outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Binance BTC reserves were at a 2-year high, and the Coinbase Premium Index has slipped into negative territory again. For a brief while towards the end of August, and again at the start of September, an uptick in U.S.-based investor demand seemed to signal market confidence.
Despite the doubt introduced among long-term holders, Bitcoin was steadily climbing towards the key $82k resistance, and this signal gave bulls some hope.
Market Context
Bitcoin
BTC
$76,779
-0.69% (24H)
Market Cap
$1.54T
24H Volume
$11.7B
24H High
$77,490
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