Analyst Sees Bitcoin Path to $97K as Weak Jobs Data Shift Fed Odds

The employment backdrop weakened as U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September and unemployment reached 4.2%, according to the September employment figures released Oct. 2 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. July and August gains were revised down by a combined 60,000.

Mena argued that softer hiring gives the Federal Reserve room to hold rates into 2027, describing a weekly decline of more than 35% in hike odds. Separately, derivatives exchange CME Group’s FedWatch rate probabilities reflect prices of contracts tied to future interest rates; they represent traders’ expectations.

Fund Buying Supports the Recovery as Rate Risks Remain

Alongside the economic shift, the analyst estimated approximately $7 billion in third-quarter net inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), stock-exchange products offering asset exposure. He described that as their strongest quarter since Q3 2025, ahead of the October 2025 record high. Net inflows measure additions after withdrawals.

Daily U.S. allocations were uneven around the quarter’s end, with $102.7 million in net inflows on Oct. 1, according to Farside Investors. That followed $148.7 million in withdrawals on Sept. 30. Mena’s quarterly estimates also included $2.6 billion for ether and $500 million for solana.