Bitcoin at $1 million by 2030? A top analyst says no way

Bitcoin is on a hot rally, trading near $79,000 as of Aug. 25, and the old dream is back: Could one coin really be worth $1 million by 2030? Some of crypto’s biggest names have said yes. But a prominent researcher is pushing back hard, calling the target “mathematically impossible.”

For anyone in Northeast Philly who bought a little Bitcoin through an app, holds it in a retirement account through a spot ETF or just hears coworkers talking about it at lunch, the debate matters. The difference between a reasonable long-term investment and a fantasy price target can shape real financial decisions.

Thielen’s $15 trillion problem

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, is the skeptic at the center of this argument. Bitcoin’s current market cap sits at about $1.6 trillion, spread across 20.1 million coins in circulation. At $1 million per coin, that existing supply alone would be worth roughly $20.1 trillion. If every one of the maximum possible 21 million BTC were mined and in circulation, the total value would land at $21 trillion.

Thielen estimates Bitcoin would need to attract an additional $15 trillion in capital to reach that price. For perspective, $15 trillion is about a fifth of the entire U.S. stock market, which is worth approximately $75 trillion. The idea that a sum that large would flow into a single asset in just a few years strains belief.