Bitcoin Could Deliver '3-5x Rather Than Another 10x' This Cycle, Analyst Says

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said Tuesday that this Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) bull cycle likely delivers 3-5x gains rather than another 10x parabolic run.

Why Ju Sees a Different Cycle Playing Out

Ki Young Ju posted on X that Bitcoin’s growing size and institutional ownership are dampening both the explosive rallies and the 80% crashes retail-driven cycles used to produce. 

He pointed to the PnL Index, which tracks aggregate holder profitability, as proof, noting that cycle tops and bottoms now form at higher profitability levels than before.

This cycle’s MVRV ratio never dropped below 1, meaning holders as a whole stayed above their average cost basis even at the lows. Ju flagged three supporting signals:

• Rising realized cap — pointing to fresh capital inflows
• OG whales — have stopped selling
• Futures whales — built large long positions near the bottom

“Giving up the 10x parabola also means giving up the 80% crash,” Ju wrote, “and that is exactly what invites patient, long-horizon capital instead of hot money.”

Why September’s Streak Matters Too

CoinDesk reported Wednesday that Bitcoin is on track for a rare three-month winning streak from July through September, a pattern seen only once before in 2012.