Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple Forecast: Key Scenarios in Sight

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple charts are testing key support levels following the August–September drawdown, the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate hike, and a potential reversal in crude oil prices.

The recent drawdowns were:

• Bitcoin (BTCUSD): -9%
• Ethereum (ETHUSD): -11%
• Ripple (XRPUSD): -20%

These drawdowns are equal to or less than 50% of the strong bullish rebounds from the yearly lows, suggesting that the recent declines may represent a corrective move before the broader rebound and uptrend resume.

This scenario is supported by the latest pullback in Brent crude oil and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, which may be easing some of the pressure created by persistent geopolitical escalation risks.

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields and UKOIL — Daily Time Frame — Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Although rate-hike expectations remain above 50% for another 25-basis-point increase at the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, these expectations continue to limit gains across currency markets.

At the same time, the broader narrative driving markets appears to be easing. Crude oil prices and energy disruption risks are moderating, with Brent crude down more than 6% from its monthly highs. This signals a potential reversal in inflationary pressures.