Bitcoin is flashing a signal that preceded 34% average gains: is $100K next?

Confirmation of the crossover would strengthen the technical recovery case, although it would not establish a reliable price target or timetable.

Macroeconomic pressure shows signs of easing

Bitcoin’s October correction may be approaching exhaustion after elevated Treasury yields, expensive oil, weaker ETF demand and profit-taking pressured the market.

As of October 13, markets assigned approximately an 18% probability to an October Federal Reserve rate increase.

Brent crude had also retreated from nearly $110 to around $105 a barrel. That decline offered some relief, although energy prices remained elevated.

The November 3 US midterm elections could influence sentiment as investors gain greater clarity about the political outlook. A closely contested Senate remains a source of uncertainty.

In addition to these, several onchain developments are also supporting Bitcoin’s potential-bottom thesis.

Bitcoin exchange reserves remain relatively low despite a recent increase, suggesting readily available exchange supply is contained compared with earlier levels.

Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand metric has also recovered sharply from deeply negative territory. It remains below zero, however, so the improvement does not yet indicate a positive reading.