Bitcoin Plummeted After the Last 4 Midterm Elections: Will History Repeat?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has fallen sharply after every midterm election since 2010—and prominent cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez expects that pattern to repeat again this November.

What the Historical Pattern Shows

Martinez layed out his thesis on Tuesday by looking at Bitcoin’s post-midterm track record. 

Following the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections, Bitcoin fell 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, respectively. 

Martinez was careful to note the pattern doesn’t prove elections caused the declines, but called it worth watching ahead of Nov. 3, 2026.

The fourth-quarter data tells a similarly mixed story. Bitcoin gained 391% in Q4 2010, but posted losses of 16.70% in Q4 2014, 42.16% in Q4 2018, and 14.75% in Q4 2022. 

Martinez argues that as Q4 begins, investors should brace for volatility regardless of direction.

His trading plan: watch for weakness after the midterms, then buy near Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis around $73,000, a level that has historically held through major corrections during confirmed bull markets.

Why the Political Backdrop Adds Weight to the Thesis

Several new polls released this month point to a rough political environment for Republicans heading into November.

Reuters/Ipsos (Sept. 17-20):