Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC at Recent Buyers' Cost Basis

Bitcoin is trading at around $75,900 on Saturday morning, roughly €68,100, according to CoinGecko price data. That puts the price almost exactly on the cost basis of short-term investors, which the analytics firm Glassnode put at $75,700 in its weekly report of November 4. What the data show: most of the coins bought over the past five months are now under water, and three important levels converge below the price between $73,000 and $76,000. Our assessment follows further down. The zone is sturdier than the mood suggests, but a daily close below $73,000 would change the picture.

Where the price could head over the coming months is covered in our Bitcoin price prediction. This article sticks to the short term and to a metric the price chart alone does not show: the average price at which the most recent buyers got in.

Short-term holder cost basis: what Glassnode measures at $75,700

Glassnode splits all bitcoin into two groups by age. Short-term holders are addresses whose coins last moved less than 155 days ago. The cost basis of this group is the average price at which those coins last changed hands. On November 7, that window reaches back to early June 2026.

The metric matters because it reflects the behaviour of a specific group of investors. Someone who bought only a few weeks ago reacts more sensitively to losses than someone who has held for years. When the price trades above the cost basis, recent buyers are on average in profit and rarely sell in a hurry. When it falls below, they slip into the red. Some of them then sell as soon as the price returns to their entry level, so they can get out without a loss. That is why the line often acts as support in uptrends and as resistance in downtrends.