Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over, Will $200,000 Mark the Peak of This Bull Market?

“From a $105,000 fair value to a $142,260 minimum target, Bitcoin’s new bull market still has room to run.”

Bitcoin is entering a new bull-market cycle. After reaching the downside target for this bear-market correction, a sustained hold above $62,900 signaled that the cycle low was in. Bitcoin then climbed above its 21-week moving average at $69,272, further confirming that the bear market was over. It is now trading around 84,000–86,000, having surpassed the May 2026 high and moved back above its 1-year moving average, while the monthly cycle indicators have also confirmed that the bear market is over.

Meanwhile, US federal debt has reached around $40.1 trillion. A simple overlay of Bitcoin against US federal debt implies a fair value of around $105,000. With debt likely to keep rising, it should continue to provide a structural tailwind for Bitcoin. However, a strengthening US dollar and Bitcoin’s short-term overbought conditions could still bring a brief consolidation.

Bear Market Confirmed Over: Bitcoin Moves Back Above the Market’s Average Cost Basis

The initial push higher was driven by short covering, and once Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000, the first wave of FOMO followed. Bitcoin then reclaimed the March 2024 high of $73,084, broke above the resistance left by the April 2025 tariff announcement, surpassed the May 2026 high, and moved back above its 1-year moving average. Bitcoin has now reclaimed the major resistance zone in place since March 2024, and with the price also above its 1-year moving average, the odds of a sustained breakout are considerably higher.