Bitcoin's Rally Is 'Early and Speculative,' Glassnode Says: What's Missing?

Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) rally lacks one key ingredient, according to Glassnode: real trading volume.

Why ETF Demand Has Cooled

Glassnode wrote in its Sept. 30 weekly report that U.S. spot ETFs took in roughly $1 billion on each of two days in late September, with Sept. 21 marking the largest single-day inflow in nearly a year. Since then, inflows have shrunk every trading day:

• Sept. 21-22: ~$1 billion per day
• Sept. 28: just $24 million

A return to inflows near that earlier pace would be the clearest sign of renewed demand.

Long-Term Holders Are the Ones Cashing Out

Profit-taking remains light compared to past cycle tops, with weekly net realized profit running closer to levels seen at the start of the 2023 uptrend than at the 2024 or 2025 peaks.

The identity of the sellers has changed, though. Long-term holders, those holding coins more than 155 days, nearly doubled their realized profit in the week to Sept. 29 compared to the breakout week, with their share of total realized profit climbing from 34% to 55%.

What’s Capping Price Right Now

A wall of sell orders sits between $85,000 and $85,500 on the Binance spot order book, tripling in size since it first appeared Sept. 24. 

Price has pushed into the lower half of that wall but hasn’t broken through.