Bitcoin: The False Breakout Is Being Confirmed

In my analysis last week, I warned that Bitcoin's bullish move would only be valid if the price managed to consolidate above the daily resistance and confirm a breakout above the 200-week EMA. I also warned investors not to rely too heavily on the ETF inflows, as although purchases continued on a daily basis, their volume was gradually decreasing.

I also pointed out that a quick loss of this area would turn the move into a false breakout. Today, that scenario is starting to materialize. Bitcoin's inability to hold above the breakout level reinforces my macro bearish view and increases the probability of a correction towards lower liquidity zones.

If we look at Bitcoin, we can see that it is currently trading between $66,000 and $60,000, with the $66,000 area acting as resistance. We have tested this level several times, even though it previously served as support around the $65,000 region.

From both a technical and psychological perspective, one of the biggest mistakes investors make is trying to predict Bitcoin's exact bottom. Every market cycle brings countless predictions placing the bottom at a specific price, but the reality is that nobody can accurately determine where a correction will end. Instead of focusing on a single level, I believe it is far more effective to identify a high-probability accumulation zone.