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1. Gold Gains on Treasury Buyback Expansion Bets

Bullish wagers on gold are building as investors bet the U.S. Treasury’s plan to expand long-term bond buybacks could push down Treasury yields and weaken the dollar. Deutsche Bank said the policy shift could send gold above $4,800 an ounce.

Open interest in call options on SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), a spot gold exchange-traded fund, exceeded put options by about 2.5 million contracts last week, the widest gap since February. Calls are used to bet on rising prices, while puts are used to position for declines. A large call-over-put gap in open interest suggests investors are preparing more aggressively for further gains in gold.

Gold has climbed 15% over the past three weeks. It rose more than 5% last week, extending its winning streak to five weeks. Even so, it remains about 17% below its record high.

The Treasury said it would increase the maximum size of each long-term bond buyback operation to at least $4 billion from $2 billion. Some investors also see roughly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account, or TGA, as a potential funding source for the buybacks.

“The Treasury’s policy shift further supports a positive outlook for gold,” Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsu said. The move could cap long-term yields and encourage dollar weakness.