Bitcoin is exhibiting characteristics consistent with a mid-to-late-stage bear market, according to a recent analysis from Bitfinex. The exchange’s report, summarized by Wu Blockchain, indicates that the leading cryptocurrency is currently trading between two critical on-chain price levels: the long-term holder realized price of $52,699 and the short-term holder realized price of $67,176.
Understanding the Realized Price Levels
Realized price is a metric that reflects the average price at which all coins were last moved. It is often used as a proxy for the cost basis of different investor groups. The long-term holder realized price is the average acquisition cost for investors who have held their Bitcoin for more than 155 days, while the short-term holder realized price applies to those who have held for less than that period.
Bitfinex’s analysis suggests that the midpoint of these two levels, around $63,200, has acted as a critical support level over the past two weeks. A decisive break below this level could open the door for a retest of June’s low of $57,803, which would represent a significant decline from current prices.
Macro Tailwinds Have Not Yet Reached Crypto
Interestingly, the report notes that despite easing U.S. inflation data and record highs in the stock market, these favorable conditions have yet to fully spill over into the cryptocurrency markets. This disconnect highlights the unique dynamics at play in the digital asset space, which often trades on its own sentiment and liquidity factors.
