How Low Will Bitcoin Get In August? Kalshi Odds

Updated August 26, 2026 · 16 min read · by Eric Lindquist

Bitcoin set the low of its August on the first afternoon of the month, at $62,209.81. Two days later it came back to the same price and stopped at $62,210.14. Thirty-three cents separated the two bottoms, and nothing since has come close to either. By the small hours of August 25, Bitcoin had run all the way to $81,265.30, its highest print since May.

Kalshi lists eight contracts on how low Bitcoin gets this month, starting at "below $60,000" and stepping down in $2,500 increments to "below $42,500." Not one has been touched. Each step is called a rung, which makes the whole set a ladder. All eight rungs now show the same thing: a seller asking one cent, the smallest price the exchange can quote, and no buyer offering anything at all. On an exchange, the ask is what a seller wants and the bid is what a buyer will pay; a contract with an ask and no bid is one person's price, and the market has not agreed to it. That distinction runs through everything below.

We asked eight AI models to price the whole ladder without letting any of them see what the market was charging. Every one of them came back under a single percent, which is roughly where the exchange is, and then they spent a whole revision round arguing about something else entirely: what this contract actually measures. Five cut their numbers by as much as twentyfold on the strength of that argument. One held its ground and named the reason. Chasing down which side was right meant going to the exchange's own paperwork, and what is in there is worth more than the trade.