Is the 2026 altcoin season here? THIS hurdle could decide it

Is the market showing the strongest altcoin rally sign yet in 2026?

At a technical level, Bitcoin dominance has opened September lower, having been rejected at the important 60% level. At the same time, the total market cap of altcoins outside the top 10 crypto assets has seen a more than 10% increase from the month’s start.

As the chart below shows, the TOTAL ex-top 10 market cap has broken above the $200 billion level and is clearing the mid-May resistance zone. In effect, it is a capital rotation scenario, with BTC shedding dominance and smaller coins gaining, which could be an early sign that the much-anticipated altcoin cycle is finally getting underway. 

Given these circumstances, it may be worth considering shorting Bitcoin [BTC]. 

Interestingly, a whale has just opened up a $50 million BTC short with 13x leverage. With BTC trading around the $80,000 resistance zone and dominance weakening, the position suggests that some big players might be taking a BTC profit while inflows are made in altcoins. 

That said, the leverage buildup isn’t sparing altcoins. If this trend holds, the rally could become crowded and vulnerable to a quick flush. Thus, even though the conditions are right for an altcoin rotation, increased leverage may very well dictate whether this will be a beginning of a new cycle or just another short-lived rally.