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The contracts, rate or quote types and calculation behind each figure on the Today page. Data observed Oct 5, 9:08 PM ET; this page updates with it. For a frozen copy, use the snapshot.

Figures12 records below, each with its own link (#id)

Democrats win the Senate

Constructed

The market-implied chance that Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress. Democrats need 51 seats, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties. Each contract's own rules decide independents, runoffs and ties.

Equal-weight average of two venues, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask.
Kalshi 65.4% (constructed). Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract, so we add its two balance-of-power contracts in which Democrats win the Senate: D House + D Senate (64.5¢) and R House + D Senate (0.90¢).
Polymarket 65.5%, from its Senate-control contract.
Average: 65.5%, shown as 65%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 65% chance of winning control of the Senate” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-06 (132 rows). Daily closing average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket. The last point is today's 9:08 PM observation. Full history (CSV)