US Bonds Suffer Worst Decade in 223 Years: What It Means for Bitcoin

Anyone who bought long US government bonds 10 years ago has lost money. Not after inflation. Before it. In 223 years of records, that has happened only once before.

Long Treasury bonds lost roughly 2% a year over the decade to August 2026, Bank of America data shows. The last stretch this bad ended in 1803, when Washington borrowed to buy Louisiana.

The Safest Trade in the World Just Broke

The math is such that bond pays a fixed coupon. Nothing more. On this day in 2016, the 30-year Treasury paid 2.32%, according to Treasury Department records. That was the whole prize.

Then inflation arrived, the Federal Reserve hiked, and yields climbed. Prices fell far enough to swallow the coupon.

The record starts in 1793 and holds 2,771 monthly readings, compiled by Santa Clara University finance professor Edward McQuarrie. Negative 10-year returns appear in 25 of those months. Bianco Research counts 24 of them in the current run.

“Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next,” wrote Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research.

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Bitcoin Now Has a Rival It Never Had

The starting yield is the tell, as it has set most of the following decade’s return across this data, by Bianco Research’s reading. Buy at 2% and you earn about 2%. Buy at 5.25% and history points near 5%.