US PCE Inflation Is a Big Test for Stocks, Crypto, and Trump

Today could set the tone for financial markets heading into the final quarter of 2026. It could also land at an awkward moment for Donald Trump, with voters increasingly focused on prices just weeks before the US midterm elections.

• PCE inflation: The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge measures how prices are changing across what Americans actually spend money on. Economists expect headline inflation to remain at 3.7%, while core PCE is forecast at 3.3%, with a 0.3% monthly increase.

• Q2 GDP: The US will publish its third estimate of economic growth between April and June. The previous estimate showed 1.5% annualized growth, and markets expect little change.

• Why it matters: The Fed raised rates this month for the first time in three years. Today's data could decide if they will raise rates again in October.

• The bigger test: Hot inflation could push bond yields higher and hit stocks and crypto again. A softer number could challenge one of Wall Street's biggest trades of September.

Crypto Has Already Taken the First Hit

Bitcoin traded around $84,000 early Wednesday, while most major cryptocurrencies remained under pressure.

Some of today's bad news is already priced in. Investors know inflation is expected to stay well above the Fed's 2% target, while markets have already shifted sharply toward more rate hikes.