VanEck Says Bitcoin Is Nearing a Cyclical Bottom

VanEck says bitcoin is approaching a cyclical bottom, telling investors the post-halving bear phase that began around Q4 2024 is showing signs of exhaustion.

A predictable cycle

The view came in a webinar led by Pat Schramm, Managing Director and Head of National Accounts, who walked through how VanEck’s Q3 outlook translates into portfolio decisions.

According to the firm, bitcoin has fallen from a peak near $125,000 to the low $60,000s during the current downturn, a pattern it ties directly to the four-year halving cycle in which mining rewards are cut in half and supply issuance contracts.

VanEck framed the decline as normal behavior rather than a breakdown in the asset itself, writing:

“These cycles are features, not structural breaks.”

Reading the GEO signals

The firm’s GEO framework tracks global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity.

Two of the three signals are currently neutral, while ecosystem leverage reads as constructive.

VanEck said the combination points to near-bottoming conditions that may warrant beginning to scale in, though it cautioned that historical market-cycle patterns may not repeat and should not be treated as a market-timing signal.

Gold and macro backdrop