Almost nothing rallied on it: the S&P 500 added just 0.40%, long-dated Treasuries fell 0.87%, and BTC sat at the bottom, down 3.12%. CoinGecko data shows the cryptocurrency is currently around $64,000, up 1.2% over 24 hours. However, it is down nearly 1% over 30 days and 49% below its October 2025 all-time high.

Brent crude jumped 7.91% as Hormuz ship transits collapsed from 31 the prior weekend to five Saturday and zero Sunday, with the 60-day ceasefire expiring and talks stalled. A re-escalation that holds Brent near $89 puts the August CPI print at risk.

For Wintermute, that combination matters. Lower rate-hike expectations would normally improve the case for risk assets, but Bitcoin failed to respond. The firm said the market was moving toward a situation where “the inflation problem seems to be moving from the Fed’s hands to oil’s.”

The ETF picture was also weak. Roughly $390 million left US spot Bitcoin ETFs between August 10 and 14, the largest weekly redemption since early July. As CryptoPotato reported, Bitcoin ETFs recorded only one positive session last week, with Monday seeing $145 million leave the funds, followed by $61 million on Wednesday, $131 million on Thursday, and nearly $58 million on Friday. Tuesday brought just under $5 million of net inflows.

“An asset that cannot rally on good news while its dedicated vehicles bleed is telling us the marginal seller is back, which weakens the depletion argument we have been carrying since W31,” wrote the trading company.

Miner Selling Adds Another Problem

Wintermute also pointed to Riot Platforms as evidence that miners may remain a source of Bitcoin supply. The firm sold 4,300 BTC during the second quarter after selling 3,778 BTC in the first quarter. Its treasury fell to 11,380 BTC as mining costs approached $91,000 per unit. Bitcoin was trading below $64,000, contributing to Riot’s $237 million quarterly loss.

Riot is also shifting part of its business toward AI data centers, with the miner reportedly agreeing to supply 191 megawatts of capacity to Anthropic under a 20-year contract worth $9.1 billion.

The ETF picture is not uniformly negative, though, as Jane Street disclosed more than $1 billion in US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings as of the second quarter, including about $828 million in IBIT. However, the filing only shows quarter-end holdings and does not capture the firm’s full derivatives exposure.