10x Research's Thielen: $1M Bitcoin by 2030 Is Impossible

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, says the popular call for $1 million bitcoin by 2030 does not survive basic arithmetic.

The math behind the call

Speaking to Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets, Thielen pointed to the roughly $1 trillion of inflows it took over 15 years to build bitcoin’s current market cap.

He said:

“It’s mathematically impossible. We have seen $1 trillion US dollars of inflow to bring the market cap really to $1 trillion. To $1 million [per] Bitcoin. It’s 15x, I think, from here.”

By his estimate, another $15 trillion would need to rotate into bitcoin over four years, roughly a quarter of the entire US stock market.

At the time of publication bitcoin traded near $63,868 with a market cap around $1.28 trillion, leaving it well below the $126,000 all-time high.

Retail psychology and unit bias

Thielen also argued that higher prices weaken retail appetite because buyers want a whole coin rather than a fraction.

He said:

“People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin. You don’t want to buy a fraction of a painting.”

He added that “satoshis doesn’t really sound as interesting as Bitcoin.”

Warning on headline price targets