3 Indicators Signal Bitcoin Could Defy Rising Bond Yields and Continue Rally

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has pulled back to $84,000 over the last week, but the real test is yet ahead in light of rising Treasury yields, according to a Binance Research note published Monday.

Brent crude topped $103 on Sept. 23, while PMI data hit a 62-month high. A weak 5-year Treasury auction then pushed October rate-hike odds toward 70% and sent the 10-year yield to 5.17%, its highest level since 2007. 

Bitcoin has pulled back to around $84,000 in response, which the analysts say shows pressure at the long end of the yield curve matters more right now than the Fed’s actual policy decision.

Yet, Binance Research analysts Moulik Nagesh and Ken Lam wrote in their note that three bullish signals could counterbalance the macro pressure on Bitcoin.

ETF Demand Is Turning Positive

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for most of 2026, bottoming at a cumulative net outflow of $5.69 billion on July 13. 

That reversed sharply on Sept. 21, when ETFs pulled in $999 million in a single day, the largest daily inflow of the year and the biggest since Oct. 6, 2025. 

Flows have stayed positive since, pushing 2026 into net positive territory even through the recent bond selloff. To the analysts, this signals real spot demand rather than futures-driven speculation.